Kamala Harris emerged as the perceived victor over Donald Trump in their first US presidential debate, based on insights from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket.
Although Harris' debate performance boosted her chances, both candidates remain neck and neck in Polymarket’s betting contract for the overall election outcome.
This was the second debate of the 2024 election season and the first one between Harris and Trump, with Harris' campaign advocating for a third debate.
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Polymarket bettors were highly engaged throughout the event, which kicked off with an unexpected moment: a handshake between the two candidates. It was Trump's first debate handshake since 2016, when he faced Hillary Clinton. Before the event, the chances of this handshake happening were placed at only 30%, with around $360,000 riding on the outcome.
Bettors had set low expectations for any mention of crypto or Bitcoin (BTC) during the debate, with odds at 26% for Trump and just 14% for Harris. Their predictions were spot on—while the debate included segments on the economy, it did not touch on topics like cryptocurrency, technology, or financial policies.
Users show high confidence that Harris will emerge as the debate's winner, with a 99% chance that polls will declare her the victor. Additionally, they have placed a 59% chance that Harris would become the favorite in Polymarket's election contract the day after the debate.
Overall, betting on the 2024 presidential election has reached a total of nearly $860 million, reflecting how closely watched and contentious this race has become.
In other news, the Trump family has revealed the goal of its upcoming project: to promote decentralized finance and US dollar-pegged stablecoins.
