Plus: Trump tariffs incoming - markets are sweating

GM. We're the Fruit Ninja of crypto - slicing through the market noise with the sharpest takes.

📢 Circle goes public.

🍋 News drops: buying a PlayStation with USDC, another NFT marketplace shuts down + more

🍍 Market flavor today

Find out more about the Fear & Greed Index here.

Crypto Market Cap: $2.76T 0.79% (24H)
Name		Price	24H	7D
	Bitcoin BTC	$85,995.60	2.05%	-1.02%
	Ethereum ETH	$1,878.11	-0.37%	-6.92%
	XRP XRP	$2.14	-1.08%	-11.34%
	BNB BNB	$603.57	-1.77%	-3.62%
	Solana SOL	$128.45	1.13%	-8.27%

I really wish I could pull up with something like "BITCOIN IS DOING EXCITING STUFF!" today… but I ain't no bullsh*tter. We’re still stuck in the same boring range.

According to trader Michaël van de Poppe, if we want this to change, Bitcoin needs to break through the $87K level.

If it drops below $82K, that’s a test of the lows - and anything in between is just noise.

But don’t zone out just yet - things might get funky later today.

Donald Trump’s gonna announce new tariffs at 4 PM ET, and depending on how harsh they are (and how markets react), we could see some big price action.

And these tariffs aren’t just causing short-term volatility - they’ve also brought back the good ol' talk of a possible recession.

Matter of fact, the Kobeissi Letter says the market's already starting to act like one is on the way.

A big red flag is what’s happening with US government bonds: over the past 11 weeks, the yield has dropped by 65 basis points.

Now, here’s why that matters:

Normally, if inflation is going up - like it is right now - you’d expect bond yields to increase too. That’s because when inflation is high, the money investors get back later won’t be worth as much - so they want a bigger return to make up for it.

Basically, rising inflation = rising yields. Makes sense, right?

Right now, though, inflation is rising, but yields are falling.

That’s not how things are supposed to go - 'cause why would anyone settle for a low return when prices are going up?

Simple: because they're more worried about protecting their money than trying to grow it. And that kind of behavior usually shows up when investors expect bad news ahead.

And it's not just bonds - stocks are showing warning signs, too.

The S&P 500 is down more than 11% from its peak. In the past, when stocks dropped this much after a small rally (like we saw in March), a recession followed about 30% of the time.

Not guaranteed, but surely not fun to hear either.

And here's more: the Fed started cutting interest rates back in September 2024. Normally, that gives the stock market a boost - on average, the S&P 500 goes up about 1% in the first six months after a rate cut.

But this time, it’s down 2%.

And when the market reacts like that, it usually means investors think the economy's in trouble.

Now, the Kobeissi Letter thinks Trump might actually want a recession to happen:

• It would help bring down both inflation and interest rates - two things he’s promised to fix;

• He’s also said he’ll lower energy prices, and a slowing economy usually causes oil prices to fall.

Which brings us back to today’s tariff announcement.

If the new tariffs are aggressive, they could push inflation higher and make recession fears worse - all while markets are already on edge.

What does that mean for crypto? Could go either way. People might get scared out of risk assets... or they might remember why Bitcoin was born in the first place.

Whatever happens, we'll break it down tomorrow.

🥝 Memecoin harvest

The dumber the name, the higher the gains 🤪

Data as of 08:10 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

🏃 Chasing that TradFi bag

Circle, the issuer of USDC, is going public.

They’ll be listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker CRCL.

To make it all happen, they're bringing in JP Morgan and Citigroup as bookrunners, which means they'll help sell the stock and get big investors on board.

So, yes, stablecoins are stepping into Wall Street - and this is kind of a big deal 😎

The last major IPO like this was Coinbase in 2021 - and it helped launch the biggest bull run we’ve ever seen.

While we’re not saying Circle’s IPO will send Bitcoin to the moon, it does have the potential to unlock the next level of mainstream adoption.

Here's why:

• It gives institutional investors a familiar entry point into crypto;

• Going public means Circle will need to be more transparent, which increases trust in USDC;

• It gives stablecoins a legitimacy boost;

• If the SEC approves this IPO, it will mean that crypto companies can work within US laws - and others might follow.

So, this IPO isn’t just big for Circle - it’s a sign that crypto infrastructure is maturing, which is good for the rest of the industry as well.

🍋 News drops

🎮 Sony Electronics Singapore started accepting USDC for payments, thanks to a new integration with Crypto.com. Mainstream adoption in action!

🕹 The ex-CMO of Blade of God X says the game ditched its Web3 plans after getting funded through crypto. She claims the Web3 team was ghosted on salaries too.

💼 Kristin Smith is leaving the Blockchain Association to join the new Solana Policy Institute. She’ll be helping lawmakers understand what Solana’s about.

⛔️ Bybit’s shutting down its NFT marketplace for good on April 8 at 4 PM UTC. If you’ve got anything left there, now’s the time to sort it out.

⚖️ Kentucky dropped its lawsuit against Coinbase’s staking program, just like Vermont and South Carolina did earlier. Seven other states, including California and New Jersey, are still going after Coinbase for allegedly breaking securities laws.

🍌 Juicy memes